AI Futures Project

Q1 2026 Timelines Update

We told you we'd be updating in both directions!

Apr 2 • Daniel Kokotajlo, Eli Lifland, and Brendan Halstead

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February 2026

Grading AI 2027’s 2025 Predictions

How has AI progress compared to AI 2027 thus far?

Feb 12 • Eli Lifland and Daniel Kokotajlo

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January 2026

Clarifying how our AI timelines forecasts have changed since AI 2027

Correcting common misunderstandings

Jan 27 • Eli Lifland, Daniel Kokotajlo, and Brendan Halstead

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Forecast how AI will progress in 2026

Predict benchmark scores, revenues, uplift, and public opinion

Jan 17 • Eli Lifland

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What Happens When Superhuman AIs Compete for Control?

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Jan 11 • Steven Veld

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December 2025

AI Futures Model: Dec 2025 Update

We've significantly improved our model of AI timelines and takeoff speeds!

Dec 31, 2025 • Daniel Kokotajlo, Eli Lifland, Brendan Halstead, and Alex Kastner

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Early US policy priorities for AGI

Near-term AI policy is confusing, except for these two recommendations

Dec 9, 2025 • Nick Marsh

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November 2025

October 2025

Scenario Scrutiny for AI Policy

A call for concrete stress-testing of AI policy proposals

Oct 28, 2025 • Joshua Turner and Daniel Kokotajlo

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How an AI company CEO could quietly take over the world

If the future is to hinge on AI, it stands to reason that AI company CEOs are in a good position to usurp power. This didn’t quite happen in our AI 2027…

Oct 21, 2025 • Alex Kastner

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September 2025

The world's first frontier AI regulation is surprisingly thoughtful: the EU's Code of Practice

Only the US can make us ready for AGI, but Europe just made us readier.

Sep 22, 2025 • Miles Kodama

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July 2025

AI As Profoundly Abnormal Technology

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Jul 24, 2025 • Scott Alexander

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