AI Futures Project

Q3.5 Timelines Update: Looks Like the Intelligence Explosion Will Happen in 2027 After All

Our timelines have shortened

Nov 10 • Eli Lifland, Brendan Halstead, Daniel Kokotajlo, Romeo Dean, Thomas Larsen, and Lukas Finnveden

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Verified Compute Allocation Disclosures as a Foundational Governance Tool

A promising first step toward pacing the frontier

Nov 10 • Eli Lifland

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October 2026

Senate Testimony Sept 2026

On September 30, 2026, I testified to the Senate Subcommittee on Disaster Management, District of Columbia, and Census.

Oct 2 • Daniel Kokotajlo

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August 2026

Q2.5 2026 Timelines Update: Uplift and Revenue

More methods for forecasting coding automation

Aug 16 • Eli Lifland, Daniel Kokotajlo, and Brendan Halstead

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How to pace the US frontier

Tentative proposals for domestic AI regulation

Aug 5 • Eli Lifland, Brendan Halstead, Romeo Dean, Thomas Larsen, and Miles Kodama

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July 2026

Plan A: Suggestions For Further Work

Yesterday we released AI 2040: Plan A, but there’s lots of work left to do.

Jul 10 • Thomas Larsen

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AI 2040: Plan A

The least bad plan we currently know of

Jul 9 • Daniel Kokotajlo, Thomas Larsen, Eli Lifland, Romeo Dean, Ryan Greenblatt, and Brendan Halstead

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June 2026

A forecast of Chinese DUV and EUV photolithography progress

What we can and can’t learn from ASML.

Jun 19 • Hamish Low, Joshua Turner, and Romeo Dean

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April 2026

Q1 2026 Timelines Update

We told you we'd be updating in both directions!

Apr 2 • Daniel Kokotajlo, Eli Lifland, and Brendan Halstead

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February 2026

Grading AI 2027’s 2025 Predictions

How has AI progress compared to AI 2027 thus far?

Feb 12 • Eli Lifland and Daniel Kokotajlo

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January 2026

Clarifying how our AI timelines forecasts have changed since AI 2027

Correcting common misunderstandings

Jan 27 • Eli Lifland, Daniel Kokotajlo, and Brendan Halstead

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Forecast how AI will progress in 2026

Predict benchmark scores, revenues, uplift, and public opinion

Jan 17 • Eli Lifland

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